ICG on Guinea Crisis: Conte has the Choice
From the venerable International Crisis Group:
Full report, released last week.
Guinea now faces two possible scenarios. There is still a chance, though a diminishing one, for a negotiated solution involving key Guinean, regional and wider international actors. Alternatively, if the Conté regime continues to rely on military repression, it could rapidly bring Guinea to a dramatic spiral of violence: full popular insurgency, with increasing chaos that is likely to stimulate a military take-over in a blood-bath, leading in turn to a possible civil war comparable to those that have torn apart its neighbours in the past decade and with uncontrollable consequences. Chaos in Guinea’s Forest Region, bordering Liberia, Sierra Leone and Cote d’Ivoire, could well destabilise its frail neighbours. Likewise, politically unstable Guinea-Bissau could suffer if its president, Joao Bernardo Vieira, seeks to support his long-time friend, Conté.